What is the Forecast for the Month of July for Both the Three-Month Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing?

$10.00

Which provides the better forecasts?

 

SKU: Oper000565

1.Zuckerman Wiring and Electric is a company that installs wiring and electrical fixtures in residential construction. John Zuckerman has been concerned with the amount of time that it takes to complete wiring jobs. Some of his workers are very unreliable. A list of activities and their optimistic, their pessimistic and their most likely completion times in days are given in the following table:

budget1

 

G E,F6 7 2 $18,000

a. Construct a network for this problem.

b. Determine the expected time

c. Determine the variance for each activity.

d. Determine the slack time for each activity.

 

 

2.Looking problem 1 determine:

a.Determine the critical path and project completion time.

b.Determine the probability that the project will be finished on or before the 23 weeks deadline.

c.Total cost per week by using the earliest start time.

d.Total cost to date by using the earliest start time

 

 

3._________ ________  _________ allows different weights to be assigned to the previous observation

 

 

4.Experience has shown that a large number of quantitative analysis teams have failed in their efforts because of what?

 

 

5.The following data is given:

Year Actual Sales Forecast

(in millions) (in millions)
1 3
2 6
3 9
4 12
5 15
6 18

 

a.Compute the 3 years  moving average.

b.Use exponential smoothing to forecast the 7th year sales. Assume the initial forecast for year 1 is $4. The smoothing constant selected is α = .2.

c.Find the MAD for both (3 years moving average and exponential smoothing ).

 

 

6.What is the weighted average in problem 5 when weights are 2, 3, and 4 (using 3 months moving average )?

 

 

7.Determine the MAD from the following data: Year Actual Sales ($) Forecast ($)

no

 

 

 

 

 

 

8.Simmons Company produces copying machine used in offices and schools. The copying machines annual demand is 6,750 machines and is constant throughout the year. Simmons Company produces machines 125 machines per day. Demand for the copiers during the production process is 30 day. When production process has been set up, 25 copying machines can be manufactured daily. The demand during the production period has been traditionally 15 machine a day. The setup cost for the equipment necessary to produce the machines is $150. Carrying costs are $1per copper per year. Simmons operates 200 days for the copying machines. How many copies should Barbara manufacture?

 

 

9.Pam runs a mail-order business for gym equipment. Annual demand for the TricoFlexers is 16,000. The annual holding cost per unit is $2.50 and the cost to place an order is $50. What is the economic order quantity?

 

 

10.XYZ Company carries a variety of electrical inventory items, and these are typically identified by SKU. One particular item SKUA 1234, has a demand that is normally distributed during the lead time, with a mean of 250 units and a standard deviation of XYZ Company wants to follow a policy that results in stockouts occurring only 6% of the time on any order.

a. How much safety stock should be maintained?

b. What is the reorder point?

 

11.Activity Description Immediate predecessor Expected Time (days)

Activity Description Immediate predecessor TuesExpected Time (days)
A Overhaul machine I — — — — — — — — – 7
B Adjust machine I A 3
C Overhaul machine II — — — — — — — — 6
D Adjust machine II C 3
E Test system B, D 2

 

 

a.Draw the network.

b.What is the slack?

c.What is project completion time?

d. What is the critical path?

 

 

12.Define the following terms:

a.Network

b.Activity

c.Critical Path

d.Variance of Activity Completion Time

 

 

13.Brass Department Store stocks toy race cars. Recently, the store was given a quantity discount schedule as following:

 

cost1

 

Thus, the normal cost for the toy dolls is $5. For orders between 0 to 999 the unit cost is $6, for ordering between 1,000 and 1,999 the unit cost is $5.80, and the unit cost is $4.50 for ordering 2,000 or more. Furthermore, the ordering cost is $49 per order, the annual demand is 5,000 toy dolls, and the inventory carrying charge as a percentage of cost, I, is 20% or 0.2.

a.Compute the total cost and

b.What is the best EOQ?

 

 

14.Annual demand for the Doll two-drawer filing cabinet is 50,000 units. Bill Doll, president of Doll Office Suppliers, controls one of the largest office supply stores in Nevada. He estimates that the ordering cost is $10 per order. The carrying cost is $4 per unit per year. It takes 25 days between the time that Bill places an order for the two-drawer filing cabinets and the time when they are received at his warehouse. During this time, the daily demand is estimated to be 250 units.

a.What is the EOQ?

b.What is the reorder point?

 

 

15.What is MAD, and why is it important in the selection and use of forecasting models?

 

16.What is MAD, and why is it important in the selection and use of forecasting models?

Activity Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic
A 4 5.00 6
B 8 9.00 10
C 7 7.50 11
D 7 9.00 10
E 6 7.00 9
F 5 6.00 7

 

a.Find the optimal time for each activity.

b.Find the variance.

 

 

17.What are the steps in Quantitative Analysis and define them?

 

 

18.Define forecasting and it’s important.

 

 

19.Inventory Control:

a.Why is inventory control an important consideration for managers?

b.What is the purpose of inventory control?

 

 

20.What are the two popular quantitative analysis techniques that help managers plan, schedule, monitor, and control large and complex projects?

 

 

21.Finding the __________  ______ is the a major part of controlling a project.

 

 

22.The earliest start time for an activity is equal to the earliest time at which an activity can end.

a.True

b.False

 

 

23.When ES, LS, EF, and LF have been determined, it is a simple matter to find the amount of slack time. Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without delaying the whole project. Thus, the slack time helps find the ___________ completion time.

 

 

24._________ ________  The X –variable in a regression equation. This is used to help predict the dependent variable.

 

 

25.The ____________ is the number of items on hand when an order for more inventory is placed.

a.safety stock

b.reorder stock

c.reorder point

d.EOQ

 

 

26.There are only two fundamental decisions that you have to make when controlling inventory and they are:

a.the economic order quantity and discount quantity

b.the ordering costs and carrying cost

c.how much to order and when to order

 

 

27.In the basic EOQ model, the two main relevant costs are:

a.order cost, purchase cost

b.order cost, storage cost

c.order cost, holding cost

d.safety stock cost, the lateness penalty cost

e.purchase cost, the discount cost

 

 

28.Time an activity would take assuming very unfavorable conditions is represented by the

a.optimistic time (a)

b.most likely time (m)

c.deterministic time (d)

d.pessimistic time (b)

 

 

29.What is the Critical Path found in the following table?

This project has four activities. (All in weeks)

Activity         Immediate         Optimistic      Most Likely         Pessimistic

Predecessor           Time                TimeTime

A            ———-                2                       8                          14

B                ———-                8                       8                           8

C                   A                       6                       9                          18

D                   B                       5                      11                          17

a.A, B

b.A, C

c.B, D

d.A, B, C, D

e.none of the above

 

 

30.The latest finish time (LF) is the earliest time an activity can end without delaying the entire project.

a.True

b.False

 

 

31.The longest path in a network is the Critical Path.

a.True

b.False

 

 

32.Factors that determine the correct amount of safety stock.

a.stock out cost

b.holding cost

c.reorder point

 

 

33.The project described by:

Activity           Immediate

Predecessor     Time

(days)

A         —          10

B         A         4

C         A         6

D         B         7

E          C         5

is best represented by which of the following networks?

abc

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

abcd

 

E) None of the above

 

 

34.The first step in planning and scheduling a project is to develop the work breakdown structure. True or False

 

 

35.Slack is the time an activity can be delayed without impacting the completion time of the project. True or False

 

 

36.Given an activity’s optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic time estimates of 4, 6, and 14 days respectively, compute the PERT expected activity time for this activity.

a.8

b.6

c.7

d.9

e.None of the above

 

 

37.Given the following small project, the critical path is ________ days.

Activity           Immediate

Predecessor     Time

(days)

A         –           10

B         –           4

C         A, B    6

a.10

b.14

c.16

d.20

e.None of the above

 

 

38.Consider a project that has an expected completion time of 60 weeks and a standard deviation of five weeks.  What is the probability that the project is finished in 70 weeks or fewer? (Round to two decimals.)

a.0.98

b.0.48

c.0.50

d.0.02

e.0.63

 

 

39.The air pollution project discussed in chapter 12 has progressed over the past several weeks, and it is now the end of week 8. Lester Harky would like to know the value of the work completed, the amount of any cost overruns or underruns for the project, and the extent to which the project is ahead of or behind schedule by developing (a) a monitoring and controlling budget cost table and (b) determine the total activity different.

ACTIVITY PERCENT OF COMPLETION ACTUAL COST ($)
A 100 20,000
B 100 36,000
C 100 26,000
D 100 44,000
E 50 25,000
F 60 15,000
G 10 5,000
H 10 1,000

 

 

40.In a PERT network, the earliest (activity) start time is the

a.earliest time that an activity can be finished without delaying the entire project.

b.latest time that an activity can be started without delaying the entire project.

c.earliest time that an activity can start without violation of precedence requirements.

d.latest time that an activity can be finished without delaying the entire project.

e.None of the above

 

 

41.________ ________ activity as an activity that comes immediately before a given activity.

 

 

42.A _______ _______ is an activity that does not directly depend on the given activity.

 

 

43.Monthly sales for JD restaurant are shown below. Suppose we expected the fourth year’s (6 months) sales to be $600,000. Thus, compute the seasonal indices for January through June.

 

MONTH 2008 2009 2010 AVERAGE 3 YEAR DEMAND(A) AVERAGE SEASONAL INDEX =(A)/Average*100
January 438 444 450
February 420 425 438
March 414 423 434
April 318 331 338
May 306 318 331
June 204 245 331

 

 

44.The objective of most inventory models is to ___________ the total cost.

 

 

45.________ is the average errors and tells whether the forecast trends to be too high or too low and by how much.

 

 

46.The latest finish time (LF) is the earliest time an activity can end without delaying the entire project.

a.True

b.False

 

 

47.Karen is a manager for The Vintage Restaurant. She has the data for past year (listed below). She concluded that, to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverages sales by month for up to one year in advance (January 2012). Food and Beverage Sales for the Vintage Restaurant ($1000)

Month 2011 Month 2011
January 242 July 145
February 235 August 152
March 232 September 110
April 178 October 130
May 184 November 152
June 140 December 206

 

 

48.For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentage of all shipments that were received on Time over the 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.

(a) Compare a three -month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2 with the first year forecast of 81.

(b) What is the forecast for the month of July for both the three-month moving average and exponential smoothing?

(c) Which provides the better forecasts?

 

 

49.Diagrams of the variable to be forecasted, plotted against another variable, such as time also called _________    __________.

 

 

50.________   ___   __________ __________  is the total sum of the squared differences between each predicted value (Y) and the mean (Y mean).

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